tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-60567423092673317062024-02-19T20:33:05.847-05:00Real Numbers and Other MusingsPatrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.comBlogger173125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-81774540941979293062018-11-12T12:54:00.000-05:002018-11-12T12:54:14.652-05:00Monmouth University Poll – 2018 Midterm Recap
[Note: All Monmouth poll reports can be found at www.monmouth.edu/polling .]
The Monmouth University Poll made a commitment in the 2018 midterms to focus on a range of Congressional races that would help the public understand what factors were at play in this election. Monmouth’s polls in the final weeks of the campaign captured the trajectory of the race for control of the U.S.Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-36689145746340292602018-11-05T12:03:00.001-05:002018-11-05T12:19:50.710-05:00Battle for the House: If you want to know "why" then look to the regions
Here’s my #2018Midterms HOUSE watch thread: Other forecasters focus on the numbers, but I’m
more interested in themes. First thing
is you can now ignore the national generic ballot and Trump rating – both have
been stable for 4 weeks. As we learned in 2016, the national polls did not tell
the story of that election. It was a set of regional stories that determined
the outcome, e.gPatrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-21286588100259047152018-01-12T17:13:00.003-05:002018-01-15T13:52:23.908-05:00So long Chris, and thanks for all the juice
by Patrick Murray
There’s no question that Chris Christie has made a significant impact
on both the New Jersey and national political scenes. I’d like to take a quick
tour of his 8-year journey as seen through his home state polling numbers.
Christie’s rollercoaster ride in public opinion can be seen in his job
approval ratings. I took a rolling 3-poll average based on data from polling
Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-42888234670537842202017-12-20T16:12:00.003-05:002017-12-20T16:14:07.355-05:00History suggests the GOP tax reform celebration will be short-lived
by Patrick Murray
Bookmark that photo of Republican lawmakers gathering at the
White House today to celebrate their first major legislative victory of the
Trump era. If history is any guide, many of them may be on their way out this
time next year.
As others have documented, including Harry Enten at 538, the just-passed tax reform bill starts out life as the least popular tax legislation
Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-78061742677492925712017-12-13T16:09:00.000-05:002017-12-13T16:09:21.622-05:00Monmouth University Poll Accurately Depicts Alabama Senate Race
West Long Branch, NJ – The MonmouthUniversity Poll accurately described the potential outcome in the
Alabama Senate race, both in terms of the margin of victory and in the level of
turnout. Monmouth’s midpoint model showed a razor thin race that Democrat
Doug Jones eventually won by 1.5 percentage points.
This unique special
election involvedPatrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-3385568716192929182017-11-06T14:32:00.000-05:002017-11-06T14:32:43.979-05:00Election Night Preview: What to look for in Virginia and New Jersey
Here’s a quick overview on what harbingers to pay attention
to as the results start rolling in tomorrow night.
Virginia
The Virginia race for governor has been competitive from the
start, despite the fact that the polling has been all over the place – ranging from
a 17 point Democratic advantage to an 8 point Republican edge in various polls released
over the past two weeks alone. Ralph Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-42241664197137362222017-06-12T10:53:00.001-04:002017-06-12T11:31:27.540-04:00Public Opinion on Impeachment: Lessons from Watergateby Patrick Murray
It was only a matter of time before a pollster started asking about the
possible impeachment of President Trump. But what do these
results really mean?
Polling during the Watergate era gives some context. Four decades ago, the
public took their cue as much from Congressional leadership’s reaction as from
breaking news. In fact, public support for removing Richard Nixon Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-45203525350951097742016-11-02T13:22:00.001-04:002016-11-02T13:22:59.087-04:00How is the Recent Email Controversy Affecting the Polls?
By Nicole Sandelier-Monmouth University Polling Institute Graduate Assistant
Last Friday, FBI Director James Comey sent a
letter to congressional leaders stating that the FBI had “learned of the
existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation” of
Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email server. With Election Day right around the corner, how
will the new revelation Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02088604087753600750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-47051047213392752982016-10-04T13:22:00.001-04:002016-10-04T13:22:30.754-04:00Clinton Enjoys a Post-Debate Bump as Majority Feel Trump Does Not Have Presidential Temperament
by Ashley Medina and Nicole Sandelier
Monmouth University
Polling Institute graduate assistants
A Monmouth
University Poll released the morning of the debate suggested that the vast
majority of voters (87%) did not expect to learn anything that would change
their minds based on the first presidential debate. With the majority of voters already set on
their presidential candidate Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02088604087753600750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-82481744354217997312016-08-29T00:28:00.003-04:002016-08-29T21:06:54.069-04:00Historical Presidential Nominee Favorability Ratings
A Monmouth University Poll released today (http://monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/) underscored the historically high
level of negative attitudes toward both major party nominees for
president.
The number of voters who cannot
bring themselves to voice a favorable opinion of either major party nominee is
unlike anything witnessed in past elections.
Only 2% have a favorable Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-61310948180552718332016-08-08T17:31:00.001-04:002016-08-08T17:35:07.512-04:00A Poll Sample's Party CompositionA note on party composition in polling samples.
Some commenters have noted that the Democratic advantage in the latest Monmouth University Poll is larger than in our poll taken just prior to the two parties' conventions . Specifically, voters in the current poll self-identify their party leanings as 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, and 39% independent or other. In the July poll it was 33Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-45316800855760411922016-05-24T16:08:00.001-04:002016-05-25T00:28:42.793-04:00The Case for Including 3rd Party Candidates in Presidential Polls
by Ashley MedinaMonmouth University Polling Institute graduate assistant
As it becomes increasingly
likely that the American public is now looking at their two major party
candidates for the 2016 election, pollsters will begin to test the head to head
matchup between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump with more frequency. However, what
many of these pollsters may fail to account for are the Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02088604087753600750noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-37258184005282184782016-05-19T15:40:00.001-04:002016-05-25T00:29:06.836-04:00Republican Disenfranchisement reaches the House: Paul Ryan Fails to Endorse Trump
by Ashley Medina
Monmouth University Polling Institute graduate assistant
Recently,
the political divide within the Republican Party became even more evident when Speaker
of the House Paul Ryan issued a statement expressing that he is “not ready” to endorse Republican frontrunner Donald
Trump. However, the Speaker’s unwillingness
to endorse the billionaire may hurt his own political Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-1092940772916009992016-05-11T14:22:00.002-04:002016-05-25T00:29:23.667-04:00West Virginia’s Trump Supporting Sanders Voters
What is up with West Virginia Democrats? Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton
won every single county on the way to a 2-to-1 victory over Barack Obama. This year she lost every single county and
got trounced by Bernie Sanders.
Well, here’s the thing. Many of
those voters aren’t really Democrats at all – at least not by any standards we
would call a Democrat in the rest of the Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-40511071501543164092016-05-04T01:38:00.002-04:002016-05-04T02:20:13.836-04:00Cruz Zigged While the GOP Electorate Zagged
The Cruz campaign’s attempt to coalesce the #NeverTrump
movement around their candidate #NeverHappened.
In hindsight, the attempt to position him as the establishment
alternative may not have been the wisest move.
Ted Cruz entered the 2016 presidential race with a reputation
as the Senate Republican conference’s enfant
terrible. He ended his campaign as
the establishment’s last Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-72988760411550106442016-03-02T16:05:00.000-05:002016-03-02T16:36:20.460-05:00Super Tuesday Polling: How Did Monmouth Do?
To say the 2016 primary season has been surprising would be
an understatement. A presumed Democratic
nominee who was supposed to coast to victory has faced a tough challenge. The GOP race is now coalescing around a front
runner who practically everyone would have laughed off less than a year ago.
This topsy-turvy situation has amplified the already significant
challenges that Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-89518849352351228612016-02-08T17:13:00.001-05:002016-02-08T17:26:40.285-05:00After the Messaging, it's Time for the Ground Game.
The final Monmouth University Poll in New Hampshire found
Donald Trump with a sizable lead over his competition in the Republican race,
while Bernie Sanders held a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in the
Democratic contest.
The big question on the GOP side is who will come in second
place, with at least four candidates realistically vying for the spot. On the Democratic side, the Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-9826519157869587212016-01-07T14:07:00.000-05:002016-05-24T14:10:38.948-04:00Testimony on Proposed Changes to New Jersey legislative Reapportionment Process
Testimony of
Patrick Murray
Monmouth University Polling Institute
New Jersey Senate
Committee on State
Government, Wagering, Tourism & Historic Preservation
January 7, 2016
Re SCR188 (proposed constitutional changes to legislative apportionment
process)
Mr. Chairman, Madame Vice-Chairwoman and members of the
committee:
I am Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University
Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-43548152995051384792015-10-27T15:48:00.000-04:002015-10-28T15:49:07.191-04:00Carson Up, Trump Downby Anthony Alaimo
Monmouth University Poll Institute graduate assistant
Despite many pundits painting
his campaign as a sideshow earlier this summer, Donald Trump has managed to
stay atop the pack of Republican hopefuls in the race for the 2016 Republican
nomination. However, ahead of Wednesday night’s third Republican debate,
recently released polls, both nationally and in some important Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-86160756843753288192015-10-19T08:14:00.000-04:002015-10-29T11:17:32.241-04:00Sanders's Defense of Clinton Politically Savvyby Anthony Alaimo
Monmouth University Poll Institute graduate assistant
The loudest
applause during last week’s Democratic debate occurred when Senator Bernie
Sanders actually came to Hillary Clinton’s defense when she was asked about her
handling of a private email server during her time as Secretary of State.
Sanders, instead of attacking Clinton on an issue that Republicans and the
media havePatrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-87881587520178666552014-06-04T15:09:00.001-04:002014-06-04T18:51:29.908-04:00New Jersey 2014 Primary Day Recap
Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ
Here’s a look at yesterday’s vote by the numbers. It’s long, but worth the read for those interested in GOTV targeting and ballot position logistics.
House District 3 – Republicans
Let’s start with the least surprising outcome. Tom MacArthur won by a lot, as expected, because the county chairs – George Gilmore in Ocean and Bill Layton in Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-59460369995522235952014-06-02T09:13:00.004-04:002014-06-02T10:00:58.332-04:00New Jersey 2014 Primary Day Outlook
Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ
New Jersey has a few interesting primary contests in federal races tomorrow, some with greater consequences than others. Here’s my take on the few competitive ones.
House District 12 – Democrats
Monmouth University’s poll two weeks ago showed a very tight race between State Senator Linda Greenstein and Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman.&Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-79260336675423376742014-04-10T08:52:00.000-04:002014-06-02T08:52:58.344-04:00When it comes to profiling Christie, facts are for wussies
Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ
In the movie Love & Death, the main character impersonates a Spanish ambassador and is asked how much progress he’s made on a pending treaty. The ersatz diplomat replies, “I've come up with all the little details. If I can just think of the main points, we got something.”
A recent New Yorker profile of New Jersey Gov. Chris Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-64169971102987686972014-02-24T01:09:00.004-05:002014-02-24T01:12:53.845-05:00 The Race is On!Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ
It appears that I have unilaterally announced the gubernatorial candidacies of both Senate President Steve Sweeney and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop. Well, somebody had to do it...
But seriously, an explanation may be in order.
This “revelation” stemmed from an interview with the Star-Ledger’s Matt Friedman on Sweeney’s elevated profilePatrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-15359697617322837612014-02-07T08:58:00.000-05:002014-06-02T08:59:25.873-04:00Sandy aid requires serious oversightThis column originally appeared as an Op-Ed in the Star-Ledger on February 7, 2014.
A legislative investigation into George Washington Bridge lane closures has become inextricably linked to the distribution of Hurricane Sandy recovery aid. No one has tied the Fort Lee incident to Sandy funds. However, the roles of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and individuals inside the agency, Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0