tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-60567423092673317062012-01-19T17:34:52.214-05:00Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.comBlogger1151100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-81770539513292231082012-01-11T16:32:00.000-05:002012-01-11T17:26:11.871-05:00

[Acknowledgements:  The data for this analysis was made available by NBC News, where I was an exit poll analyst on primary night.] Mitt Romney pulled off something no non-incumbent presidential candidate has done before:  won both Iowa and New Hampshire.  Victories in South Carolina and, more importantly, Florida could pretty much set the seal on this year’s GOP contest. However, the New

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-29061543064555339432012-01-09T17:19:00.001-05:002012-01-11T10:29:21.081-05:00

New Jersey’s legislative leadership announced today that their first bill of the new session will be legalizing gay marriage.  Senate President Steve Sweeney, who abstained on this bill during the last days of Jon Corzine’s administration, now says he made a mistake.  Further, he says that his decision calculus two years ago was politically driven, but this time it is not.  Really? I’m not

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-19839549506462965852012-01-04T14:20:00.002-05:002012-01-04T14:20:25.906-05:00

Sure, it was only by 8 votes.  And the vote count probably wasn’t accurate.  And it has no bearing on the actual number of Iowa delegates he will get.  But Mitt Romney won the Iowa caucuses.  Just a few weeks ago, this seemed highly improbable.So what happened?  A stealth organizing campaign and oodles of PAC spending on TV ads tearing down his opponents certainly played the major role.  But the

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-15705119333624151852011-12-23T16:00:00.000-05:002011-12-28T00:32:22.934-05:00

I’m getting ready to drive 250 miles for Christmas, so this lacks the in-depth number crunching you’ve come to know and love me for.  But here are my initial thoughts about New Jersey’s Congressional redistricting commission decision. First, let’s drop the pretense that districts 5 and 9 were combined.  They weren’t. John Farmer said that he went into this process believing that the

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-44924089003822293842011-12-22T15:16:00.003-05:002011-12-22T15:26:21.220-05:00

Sure, I know Iowa’s nearly two weeks away.  But I’m taking next week off, so I thought I’d go out on a limb and make some predictions now about the January 3rd caucuses. Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucus in a landslide.  OK, that was too easy.  Let me take a stab at the Republican race. For a while, it looked like Newt Gingrich was the one to beat, but the latest state and national

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-66342147553910568422011-12-18T15:56:00.002-05:002011-12-19T11:01:39.334-05:00

So here we go again.  Another New Jersey redistricting commission will sequester itself in New Brunswick’s Heldrich Hotel.  This time, Congress is up for grabs.  What will happen?  Who knows?  But we can speculate. The outcome of Congressional redistricting is much harder to predict than this year’s legislative process.  For one, the New Jersey Constitution has a number of standards that limit

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-87056919446650477882011-12-02T14:23:00.001-05:002011-12-19T11:02:27.053-05:00

The latest Rasmussen poll has Newt Gingrich with a 21 point lead over Mitt Romney among Republican voters.  How did this happen?Well, a few caveats.  First, there is no such “lead,” because there is no such thing as a national primary in which these candidates are competing.  At this stage of the game, the only polls that tell us anything at all about the race are those in Iowa and New Hampshire,

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-10169726191359730612011-11-07T14:16:00.001-05:002011-11-08T10:36:22.448-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ Election Day is tomorrow.  And as is typical of these low turnout affairs, it’s now a matter of managing expectations.  Over the past few months, the New Jersey GOP has been putting out mixed messages about what they hope to accomplish in this election.  Let’s put these expectations in context. When the new legislative map was first unveiled in April, it was clear

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-37938718352645512702011-11-01T14:19:00.001-04:002011-11-01T14:19:47.834-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJNew Jersey goes to the polls seven days from now. Well, actually very few New Jerseyans will go to the polls seven days from now.  Statewide registered voter turnout will fall below 30% for the first time since records have been kept.  So many seats are considered a lock that many incumbents won’t even demonstrate a minimal level of respect for voters by answering the

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-73433394572712095242011-10-24T14:10:00.000-04:002011-10-24T14:10:32.927-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJDoes the Occupy Wall Street movement represent anything other than the protesters who have taken to the streets in New York and elsewhere?  Public opinion data indicates that they are tapping into widespread frustration with the political system, even if they don’t reflect the political ideology of most Americans.  And that makes this a movement worth watching. So what

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-45181804685815115352011-10-19T15:52:00.002-04:002011-10-26T17:42:32.419-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ Governor Christie is becoming a pretty good public opinion analyst.  Earlier this week, he noted that the Occupy Wall Street movement is not unlike the Tea Party, saying that both grew out of an “underlying problem… that people feel like government is unresponsive and dysfunctional.”  His view is an accurate read of current polling data. That demonstration of

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-39551135116351749682011-10-05T15:37:00.000-04:002011-10-05T15:38:15.886-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ He meant it.  The answer was “no” all along.  But Gov. Christie made a couple of claims during the Q&A part of his press conference that bear further analysis.  He said that the press was careless in how they reported this and that no one believes he stoked the media hype.  I agree with one part of that but disagree in part with the other. First, it’s clear that

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-14388612104505982532011-09-27T11:00:00.000-04:002011-09-27T16:52:55.545-04:00

It’s official.  The Christie camp is actively stoking the fire of the “will he, won’t he” rumor mill.  Up to now, Chris Christie could plausibly claim that “outsiders” were responsible for the ongoing saga of a 2012 run.   No more. The ball game changed when former Governor Tom Kean told the National Review that Christie is reconsidering whether to run for president.   This refutes

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-20366477299725110362011-09-26T02:23:00.000-04:002011-09-26T09:51:01.575-04:00

This post originally appeared as an Op-Ed in the Asbury Park Press, Courier News, Courier-Post, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune. The entire New Jersey Legislature is up for election this November; all 40 seats in the Senate and 80 seats in the General Assembly.  This means that control of the legislature is up for grabs.  Voters will decide whether to endorse the current configuration of

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-8825921965042566632011-09-22T00:05:00.000-04:002011-09-22T00:49:17.500-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ Another redistricting process is upon us.  Earlier this year, a state commission approved a new map for New Jersey’s legislature that emphasized incumbent protection.  This map ensures that no more than one or two seats in either chamber will change parties this November and all but guarantees that Democrats will control the legislature throughout the decade. Now

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-87680710705007645072011-09-16T17:09:00.003-04:002011-09-16T17:12:45.973-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJLast month, Monmouth University and NJ Press Media released a poll on education reforms proposed by the Christie administration.  It has produced a whirlwind of blogosphere commentary from a few folks who took exception to the poll’s results. The poll found broad, general support for the governor’s proposals, but with a few caveats.  When we asked questions pertaining

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-81694461387194758592011-08-03T19:31:00.003-04:002011-08-04T15:06:08.876-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJA new PPP poll shows that a clear majority of New Jersey voters oppose gay marriage. “Hang on a minute,” you say.  “All the media reports I saw on that poll say that New Jersey supports gay marriage.  Are you off your rocker, Murray?” No, I’m not.  I just read the entire press release sent out by the pollster.  I found information in the very first paragraph that could

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-32289895812247507792011-07-21T16:10:00.002-04:002011-07-21T16:11:08.948-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJA new 501(c)(4) – i.e. a “shadow PAC” – is on the block in New Jersey and the criticism has been fast and furious.  I’m referring to One New Jersey, started by a group of Democratic strategists as a counterpoint to similar Republican-sponsored efforts.The main charge leveled against this group is hypocrisy.  During the past year, Democrats assailed two GOP non-profit

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-16061044655565860332011-07-07T16:19:00.002-04:002011-07-11T15:24:56.539-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJHere’s the story line so far.*After successfully corralling enough Democratic legislators to pass pension and benefit reforms, Senate President Steve Sweeney allows the liberal wing of his party to control the budget process in order to score political points off Governor Chris Christie.  The governor won’t be outplayed and exacts revenge by making bigger cuts than he

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-24031827709985437992011-06-30T12:16:00.005-04:002011-06-30T12:36:11.975-04:00

In just a few hours, NJN as we know it will go dark. I, for one, will miss it. It played an integral role in developing my awareness of what it means to be a New Jerseyan - and a New Jersey pollster.My first political memories seem to revolve around television. On a hot summer day in 1974, my little brother and I sat in front of the TV in our grandparents’ Camden row home. I was only 9 years

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-4097087602145652762011-06-29T13:15:00.007-04:002011-07-11T17:41:37.847-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJA new player entered New Jersey’s crowded polling market and confirmed the recent decline in Governor Christie’s approval ratings.  The big story of this poll is his possible slippage among independents voters.The latest poll was conducted for Bloomberg news by Selzer  & Co, a well-respected Iowa polling firm with a pretty solid track record polling their home state’s

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-50758183736002691432011-06-07T12:59:00.001-04:002011-06-07T15:39:26.022-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJToday is primary day in New Jersey.  Here’s a rundown of the contested seats, including my picks for most intriguing match-up and likeliest upset, plus a non-legislative race worth watching.Turnout should be about 7% – somewhere between 350,000 and 370,000 voters.  While that may seem low, consider that there is little reason for most voters to show up.  Of the 240

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-44754476519769533462011-06-01T10:31:00.001-04:002011-06-01T11:39:19.751-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJNew Jersey political observers are aware that Governor Christie’s job rating has taken a tumble in the past month. All three pollsters who regularly track his “job approval” found similar declines in public opinion.Both Monmouth/NJ Press Media and Quinnipiac reported net 11 point drops since February and FDU/Public Mind showed an 8 point drop in the governor’s net job

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-26938935085562808672011-05-24T15:04:00.000-04:002011-05-24T15:05:01.264-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJThe latest Supreme Court ruling on educational funding presented some interesting options for Chris Christie. He could have defied the court order as overstepping its bounds, as many of his supporters hoped he would. In the end, he took a less controversial way out. Maybe.From a public opinion point of view, the decision will go largely unnoticed. Part of the

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-53366625089591663662011-05-15T10:27:00.002-04:002011-05-18T10:29:23.903-04:00

This post originally appeared as an op-ed column in the Asbury Park Press, Courier News, Courier-Post, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune.We all have an opinion whether New Jersey’s quality of life is good or bad. But what exactly does quality of life mean? And how does our home state contribute to it? New Jersey is not an easy place to pin down. It is a state of great variety in terms of

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-35171287568878756832011-04-12T15:47:00.000-04:002011-04-12T15:49:20.110-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJNow that the primary candidate petitions have been filed, we can start to get a good sense of what the New Jersey legislature’s demographics will look like come January. And with few exceptions, the new face of the legislature will look a lot like the old one.Minority representation was probably the hottest point of contention during the drawing of the new legislative

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-81600548468583042322011-04-05T10:53:00.006-04:002011-04-05T12:28:15.894-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ"The Democratic map, I believe, was a more conservative, less disruptive map," Alan Rosenthal said tellingly on Sunday in justifying his choice of a new legislative map for New Jersey. "Less disruptive."After all the basic federal parameters were met (equal population, contiguity of borders, and retention of current minority-majority districts), minimal disruption was

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-76900598245723932172011-03-15T13:36:00.005-04:002011-03-16T10:43:35.280-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJThe Legislative Apportionment Commission has decided on a Democratic map. The 11th member, Alan Rosenthal, made it all but official at his first public appearance with the commission last week.OK, I’m being a tad flippant. Dr. Rosenthal only laid out his standards for judging which map he would settle on. The list of priorities he announced publicly was less

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-46973190593162285312011-03-09T10:43:00.015-05:002011-03-09T11:17:06.940-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJWhat makes a legislative map competitive? Definitions vary, but in my view it includes the following characteristics: either party has a chance of winning a majority and the number of districts that could conceivably change hands in each election is maximized. This is not to say that legislative control would, or even should, change hands every two years – just that

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-43183026343463645662011-03-07T11:36:00.006-05:002011-03-08T17:44:27.620-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJNow the work begins. With the appointment of Alan Rosenthal as the 11th member of the New Jersey Apportionment Commission, the work on drawing up a new legislative map commences in earnest.A number of interested parties have already weighed in at public hearings, asking for a map that would bolster their group’s representation in the legislature. However, I have yet

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-25036859619105368342011-02-17T09:00:00.009-05:002011-02-28T10:09:10.988-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ[2/18 note: There is some debate whether Portuguese-American Albert Coutinho should be counted as a Latino legislator.]My last column examined the legal underpinnings of redistricting in terms of suggestions offered by New Jersey’s Latino community. In this column, I break down the numbers behind some of those proposals. Keep in mind that the key concern raised by

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-76932897097164682762011-02-15T14:11:00.002-05:002011-02-18T10:22:49.686-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJRecent hearings held by the New Jersey Legislative Apportionment Commission in Newark and Jersey City were dominated by concerns of the Latino community. However, the community did not speak with one voice – or at least that voice was somewhat muddled.One thing the speakers did agree on is that Latinos are under-represented in the Legislature. While Latinos make up

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-17568951200176731792011-02-03T13:43:00.000-05:002011-02-03T13:44:44.328-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJThe New Jersey census data has arrived. Now the process of legislative redistricting can begin in earnest. If you have been following media reports about the process you may think that a number of decisions have already been made. Well, that’s what the 10 partisan commissioners would like you to think. Here’s my take on three items that the media has reported.1. “

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-3099745283066068052011-01-24T16:21:00.002-05:002011-01-24T16:34:38.206-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJToday, Governor Chris Christie inserted himself into the national political debate. It wasn’t on repeal of President Obama’s health care plan or immigration reform. It was on the issue of abortion. At a public event marking the 38th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s decision that legalized abortion, the governor said that “every life is precious and a gift from God”

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-68905115400782714812011-01-03T10:52:00.003-05:002011-01-06T15:44:39.336-05:00

This post originally appeared as an Op-Ed in the Star-Ledger.UPDATE: Commission public hearings announced: 1/12-Rutgers Law School in Newark; 1/13-Hudson County Community College in Jersey City; 1/18-Rowan University in Glassboro; and 1/20-Ocean County Administration Building in Toms River. The hearings will begin at 6 p.m.One of the most politically important events in the state will occur

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-18199692161180715512010-12-29T08:38:00.009-05:002010-12-29T09:33:58.645-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJIt seems fitting that Chris Christie’s first year as governor wraps up with a snowstorm. That’s how it started. Before he even made his first address to the legislature back in February, the newly minted governor had to deal with a snowstorm that walloped South Jersey. He caught some flack for waiting two days to declare a state of emergency. Perhaps that’s why he

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-88070373484795214142010-12-21T14:26:00.003-05:002010-12-21T14:36:36.381-05:00

With the loss of a House seat, members of New Jersey's delegation will each represent 56,000 more people than they do now. Have our Congressional districts become too large?Cross-posted at PolitickerNJIt’s now official. New Jersey will have only 12 Congressional seats starting with the 2012 election.Actually, New Jersey didn’t lose its 13th seat by as large a margin as many had expected. Our

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-19540363890568449202010-12-08T12:16:00.003-05:002010-12-08T12:20:39.298-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJThe national attention on New Jersey’s governor has taken a new turn – now portraying him as the anti-Obama. In the past month, numerous commentators have found editorial fodder in contrasting Chris Christie’s governing style with the president’s, including this article in Newsweek.Welcome to the club. Observers of the Garden State scene saw this coming a long time

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-50090605303837211612010-11-29T17:07:00.005-05:002010-11-29T17:14:24.903-05:00

The clock is ticking for NJN. New Jersey Network. The New Jersey Channel. JerseyVision (yes, it was once called that).Forty years of broadcast television focused on one thing – the state of New Jersey.It would be a shame to lose that. Yet it is difficult to justify NJN’s state operation as an essential government service. However, NJN – or the existence of some broadcast entity focused on the

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-5125555375247893942010-11-11T15:30:00.002-05:002010-11-11T15:33:40.386-05:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJWhat did we learn from this election?Two things:- Internal campaign polls that make their way into the public domain are highly suspect- Independent - or unaffiliated - voters don’t vote in non-presidential years.Actually, we already knew both those things. Unfortunately, this sometimes gets forgotten in the quest to report something “sexy.”So, when next year’s

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-91131121514016450852010-09-23T12:47:00.002-04:002010-09-23T12:50:01.920-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJOur latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Press Media Poll asked New Jerseyans how much they trust their leaders to reform state government. Governor Chris Christie has an advantage over other officials on this metric, but not by as much as some might think.The governor garners “a lot” of trust from 32% of the public – including 52% of Republicans, 35% of

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-16094925981190190392010-08-30T13:54:00.001-04:002010-08-30T14:05:24.153-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJMuch has been made of New Jersey Governor Christ Christie’s initial harangue over the state’s loss of Race to the Top funds.  The governor lambasted federal bureaucrats and the Obama administration for not accepting revised information, although subsequent evidence indicates that such information was never provided by the state. The governor’s political opponents say

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-56752837835712676602010-08-17T14:30:00.004-04:002010-08-17T16:41:45.861-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJI recently wrote that a publicly released campaign poll memo was from a message testing survey, with the results presented out of context. I’ve had some experience with message testing polls, specifically working with non-profit organizations on crafting communication strategies.My most recent experience with message testing polls, though, was as a respondent. A few

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-25675922550767137642010-08-05T10:30:00.007-04:002010-08-05T12:36:57.624-04:00

Cross-posted at New Jersey NewsroomOne of the hardest things for a president to do is to stay in touch with the concerns of everyday folk. It’s just the nature of holding a public office, but there are certainly degrees of distance. It is easier for a state legislator to mingle among the masses than it is for a governor. And it is much easier for a member of Congress to grab a bite in a local

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-24896282461542376712010-07-29T14:16:00.001-04:002010-08-05T10:40:07.233-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ.Numbers matter. Poll results, budget deficits, health statistics. Attach a number to any issue and it becomes reality. But sometimes a reality check is in order.When this year’s budget was first unveiled, the administration touted the closure of a nearly $11 billion structural budget gap. There was some debate over that claim because it involved spending that had

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-17383054763513992792010-07-23T13:21:00.005-04:002010-08-05T10:39:07.736-04:00

Cross-posted at PolitickerNJ.The political blogosphere recently took note of a poll in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional district purporting to show first-term Democratic incumbent John Adler with a surprising 17 point lead over GOP challenger Jon Runyan. The poll was conducted for the Adler campaign by their own pollster, but even campaign pollsters have to produce reliable estimates if they want

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-557775004030592802010-07-15T14:54:00.002-04:002010-07-15T14:55:48.953-04:00

So what’s the deal with the New Jersey homebuyer tax credit? This program would give homebuyers in the state a tax credit worth up to $15,000 spread over three years. The bill (A1678) passed the legislature with overwhelming bi-partisan support and landed on the governor’s desk on June 10. Yet, Chris Christie has yet to sign it.On New Jersey 101.5’s “Ask the Governor” program this week,

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-76792089612887198282010-06-18T16:12:00.003-04:002010-07-15T16:15:30.210-04:00

This originally appeared as a guest column on Pollster.com.The motto of Nate Silver’s website, www.fiverthirtyeight.com, is “Politics Done Right.” I’m not sure that his latest round of pollster ratings lives up to that moniker.As most poll followers know, Nate shot to fame during the 2008 election, taking the statistical skills he developed to predict baseball outcomes and applying them to

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-51016669423868062882010-06-13T08:41:00.002-04:002010-06-13T08:44:14.204-04:00

This column originally appeared as an Op-Ed in the Gannett New Jersey newspapers on June 13, including the Asbury Park Press, Courier News, Courier-Post, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune.What do New Jerseyans answer when asked to name the most unfair tax they pay? If you said property taxes, you are correct. If you said something else, I’d like to be among the first to welcome you to our

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-14176858255560838892010-06-10T10:09:00.011-04:002010-06-10T10:32:41.682-04:00

So what does the outcome of New Jersey’s Congressional primaries mean? The Tea Party movement certainly made a statement, but there is a lot more to the message voters sent on Tuesday. Basically, voters of all stripes are frustrated, but that frustration was voiced in different ways by Republicans and Democrats. On the GOP side - assuming Anna Little holds on in the 6th district - the Tea

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-8670701237949791342010-04-27T12:35:00.009-04:002010-04-27T14:25:45.321-04:00

Two days after the Gannett New Jersey newspapers ran a feature on New Jersey’s image (which included my analysis of state and national public opinion trends), there is a new poll from Eagleton-Rutgers updating some of those numbers. And they don’t look particularly good.Wait a minute, you say! Didn’t today’s headlines proclaim that most New Jerseyans like the state? Yes, but the analysis

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-21102293071757144392010-04-25T10:18:00.000-04:002010-04-26T10:22:16.501-04:00

This column originally appeared as an Op-Ed in the Gannett New Jersey newspapers on April 25, including the Asbury Park Press, Courier News, Courier-Post, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune.A little over 30 years ago, the nation was astounded to discover that most New Jerseyans actually liked living here. This shockwave was set off by an

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-30520993189646833572010-04-21T15:58:00.008-04:002010-04-21T17:29:08.454-04:00

Yesterday, New Jersey voters did something they haven’t done in more than 30 years: defeated a majority of school district tax levies. [Note: I’m calling them “levies” here because that is more accurate. Voters don’t really have a say on the spending portion of the operational budgets of their local schools. They only get to vote on the amount in property taxes that the district proposes

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-28621723281037804312010-04-19T07:43:00.025-04:002010-04-19T17:28:23.397-04:00

A trio of polls were released last week on Governor Chris Christie’s budget, particularly focusing on school aid cuts and state unions. According to at least one report, these polls were “seemingly at odds” with one another (also here). But if you look at what the three polls actually asked, they really tell separate pieces of a cohesive – but nuanced – story.The Eagleton Poll (and here) found

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-13521034145027155152010-04-14T00:30:00.000-04:002010-04-14T00:42:59.046-04:00

The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll contains some mixed news for Governor Christie’s budget. The public may see it as tough, but not necessarily fair. Two-thirds of New Jerseyans say that the proposed cuts will disproportionately hurt some New Jerseyans, mainly the middle class, the poor, and … teachers. When Governor Christie unveiled his budget, he made a specific effort

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-10671036408231934102010-04-01T14:38:00.009-04:002010-04-01T15:01:30.293-04:00

President Obama surprised more than a few people with his announcement yesterday to allow oil drilling in coastal waters. The northwestern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean exploration area is reportedly within 10 miles of Cape May, New Jersey. So it’s not surprising that Garden State political leaders have an opinion on this. What may be more surprising is that their opinion is nearly

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-53213076808508712542010-03-23T12:07:00.008-04:002010-03-23T12:16:54.730-04:00

It’s a truism that Americans rate their own Congressional representatives more positively than the institution as a whole. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll released last week bears that out.Congress as a whole received an abysmal 17% job approval rating in the poll. Other polls released over the past few weeks showed between 14% and 26% of Americans approving of the Capitol Hill’s

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-70595563752003268422010-03-18T09:30:00.001-04:002010-03-18T09:32:18.350-04:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby.Governor Christie laid out his initial budget plan on Tuesday in his typical take-no-prisoners manner. The pain train is rolling down the tracks.The soft sell has never been part of his repertoire. His message was clear and so was his intent. What is not clear is whether he will be able to sell it to the public.Here’s why.Yes,

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-44379808012871834072010-03-08T09:58:00.006-05:002010-03-08T10:34:24.994-05:00

I was asked to write this analysis for a Gannett New Jersey feature, including Asbury Park Press, Daily Record, Home News Tribune, and Courier News. It appeared in Sunday's papers.What is public opinion on gay marriage? That question was certainly at the forefront of New Jersey’s recent legislative debate on the issue. But a better question may have been whether the public actually has an

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-16801113271869435932010-02-17T09:59:00.000-05:002010-02-17T10:00:35.660-05:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby.Governor Chris Christie has wasted no time making his mark on Trenton. He has already used his veto power to make examples of fiscal waste. And last week, he called a special session of the legislature to declare a state of fiscal emergency.In all honesty, the governor’s address to the legislature was pure political theater. He

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-68821595301808042402010-01-29T09:58:00.001-05:002011-08-10T22:20:23.694-04:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby. Wednesday night was certainly an interesting one for political observers in New Jersey. The evening began with the Garden State’s new chief executive, Chris Christie, appearing on New Jersey 101.5 to talk about what he would do in his first year. An hour later, President Barack Obama took to the national airwaves to explain what

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-33986310361931500982010-01-24T10:49:00.002-05:002010-01-24T10:57:18.384-05:00

This post originally appeared as an Op-Ed in the Courier-Post.One of the Christmas presents my daughter received was a bedtime book called “Good Night, New Jersey.” As she unwrapped it, the gift’s giver, my sister, [reflecting on the downhill trend of the state over the past few decades] remarked, “Soon, we’ll all be saying good night to New Jersey.” My sister is not alone. Polls indicate that

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-42281591958567522952010-01-20T12:58:00.001-05:002010-01-20T12:59:59.820-05:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby.By all accounts, Tuesday was a good day for Republicans, both in New Jersey and nationally. In New Jersey, Chris Christie took the oath of office, marking the GOP’s first position of power in Trenton since John Bennett’s tenure as Senate Co-President ended with his defeat in 2003.In Massachusetts, Scott Brown scored an upset win in

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-84354234085836648102010-01-07T10:45:00.007-05:002010-01-08T09:49:30.563-05:00

Today, the New Jersey State Senate is scheduled to vote on what could be its most volatile piece of legislation of the session. Obviously, I’m talking about S1036 – the bill to grant children of illegal immigrants in-state tuition rates at New Jersey’s public colleges and universities.I bet you thought I was going to say same-sex marriage, weren’t you? Sure, that issue has been getting the lion

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-1995564607158383742009-12-08T17:39:00.000-05:002009-12-08T17:40:27.115-05:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby.As the New Jersey Senate prepares to vote on the “Freedom of Religion and Equality in Civil Marriage Act,” a number of editorialists have asked for my take on public opinion about gay marriage (or marriage equality, depending on one’s point of view). The polls conducted in the past year or two have been quite clear. At a gut level

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-11494194708435835532009-11-09T10:27:00.003-05:002009-11-09T10:30:14.962-05:00

This post originally appeared as an Op-Ed in the Courier-Post.The conventional wisdom is that you just can't beat a superior bankroll. That might have proven true for the Phillies, but it certainly wasn't the case for Chris Christie.A very disgruntled Garden State electorate came out to vote on Tuesday. In the last Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll taken before the election, only 36

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-59863735353964488782009-11-05T15:52:00.018-05:002009-11-06T15:04:04.536-05:00

Well, the pundits said that turnout would be the name of the game in New Jersey this year. The problem is we were looking at the wrong type of turnout. While we were busy focusing on core Democratic areas, the republicans upped the ante on their own turf.Overall, Garden State turnout was down about 3 points from the last gubernatorial race. Based on my analysis of votes counts as of Wednesday,

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-78066446392193666092009-11-05T09:18:00.010-05:002009-11-05T17:09:58.543-05:00

For this year's gubernatorial election, the Monmouth University Polling Institute joined with NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey newspaper group to provide some "home-grown" analysis of the New Jersey exit polls.The exit polls were conducted by Edison Research (of Somerville, NJ) for the National Election Pool (the major TV and cable networks and the AP).Here are links to summaries of the exit

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-24748343665513344202009-11-04T02:25:00.005-05:002009-11-04T09:25:04.411-05:00

Congratulations to Governor-Elect Christie. Now for the hard part. You said New Jersey needs a good, hard shake-up. Here's hoping you can do it.Also, kudos to Scott Rasmussen (of Ocean Grove) for the poll which most closely resembled the final election result. Oddly enough, it was taken 5 days before the election. I guess the lesson there is to quit while you're ahead :) The other

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-89958442172635718032009-11-03T23:33:00.003-05:002009-11-05T17:02:50.140-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:Polls taken during the summer showed New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine with serious problems among his partisan base. His support among African-American and Hispanic voters was below average and union members were trending toward Chris Christie. Overall,

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-69598344105665006442009-11-03T23:29:00.007-05:002009-11-05T18:08:12.498-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:In most states, Democrats tend to do better among women, while Republicans fare well with male voters. That hasn’t been the case in recent New Jersey elections, though. Both Barack Obama and Frank Lautenberg in 2008 and Bob Menendez in 2006 won over both

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-90163681562131885352009-11-03T23:15:00.003-05:002009-11-09T09:52:07.883-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:What personal qualities do New Jersey voters want most in a governor? According to the exit poll, 39% were looking for someone who can bring about needed change, 27% preferred to vote for someone who shares their values, 12% wanted somebody honest, and

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-30489314880593772462009-11-03T22:37:00.004-05:002009-11-09T09:54:18.290-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:Throughout the 2009 gubernatorial election, New Jersey voters have consistently said that they would like to hear the candidates talk more about property taxes. Chris Daggett briefly surged in the polls after he laid out a plan to reduce property taxes.

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-67267333892143219952009-11-03T22:15:00.002-05:002009-11-04T15:18:25.282-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:Which gubernatorial candidate did New Jersey voters like best? The exit polls indicate that none was an overwhelming darling.Overall, Chris Christie had a 50% favorable to 48% unfavorable view. The incumbent Jon Corzine had a 45% favorable to 54%

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-33489982453872180852009-11-03T21:28:00.003-05:002009-11-05T17:02:10.651-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:While the election outcome was decided by a few percentage points, Jon Corzine clearly lost the contest for Miss Congeniality. Nearly 3-in-4 (73%) New Jersey voters leaving the polls said the incumbent had unfairly attacked his main opponent during the

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-90852827279483109382009-11-03T20:42:00.002-05:002009-11-09T09:51:27.148-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:What was Chris Daggett’s impact on the election today? According to the New Jersey exit poll, he didn’t seem to develop a broad appeal with any particular constituency. Among independent voters, he garnered just 9% of the vote, and fared somewhat worse

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-72070433268854844202009-11-03T20:35:00.003-05:002009-11-09T09:53:38.761-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:President Barack Obama made three campaign trips to the Garden State to stump for Governor Corzine. So did he have any impact on the vote? Well, he probably didn’t change many New Jerseyans’ vote choice, according to the exit poll.While 19% of voters

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-35777615556831374522009-11-03T20:05:00.003-05:002009-11-09T09:53:05.523-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:Independent voters are said to be the lynchpin to electoral success in the Garden State. This is especially true for a Republican fighting a significant Democratic advantage in party registration, who needs a nearly 2 to 1 margin to overcome that partisan

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-75748371518880729562009-11-03T19:33:00.004-05:002009-11-09T09:52:37.576-05:00

The following analysis of the National Election Pool/Edison Research exit poll was provided for NJN News and the Gannett New Jersey Newspapers:The early exit poll results indicate that financial concerns weighed most heavily on voters’ minds as they went to the polls today.Leading the list of issues in vote for governor today was the economy and jobs at 32% and property taxes at 26%. They were

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-50986373255248782382009-11-02T18:25:00.007-05:002009-11-02T18:41:47.114-05:00

The race for New Jersey governor has been one of the most volatile I have witnessed. Where some observers see momentum, I see unpredictability. Here’s my breakdown of the key factors in the race.Undecided VotersIn an incumbent election, the undecided vote will break for the challenger, or so the theory goes. The question in this race is which challenger. A focus group I conducted with

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-20852987465962428322009-10-26T11:15:00.003-04:002009-10-26T12:16:21.906-04:00

It’s time to clear up some confusion about unaffiliated and independent voters. If you are a member of the media who reports on New Jersey election polls or turnout, you should read this.Party Registration is Not the Same as Party IdentificationAt this time of year, many reporters, pundits, and other commentators talk about the importance of the independent vote in New Jersey by stating

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-702959433844156922009-10-22T10:53:00.001-04:002009-10-22T10:55:21.319-04:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby.Chris Christie put out a new web video in response to President Barack Obama’s campaign stop for Governor Jon Corzine Thursday. Christie has been trying to use Obama’s “Change” mantra to unseat the incumbent, but has been having limited success in getting it to resonate with voters.As I watched that video, the penny finally dropped

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-10438249910439391222009-10-15T13:11:00.002-04:002009-10-15T13:15:28.105-04:00

The conventional wisdom in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is the better that Chris Daggett does, the worse Chris Christie does. Certainly, Daggett’s rise in the polls over the past four weeks is a nearly point for point match with Christie’s drop in support.That certainly is true at the aggregate level, as I have noted elsewhere. Specifically, if you compare this week’s Quinnipiac Poll to the

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-49531608000614063932009-10-13T11:30:00.004-04:002009-10-13T13:00:36.133-04:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby.Shortly after New Jersey’s gubernatorial primary in June, I wrote a blog post about the messages and strategy to look for in the general election. With just three weeks left before Garden State voters go to the polls, I thought it would be a good time to see how things have played out. It turns out that neither major party

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-35548051862729233332009-10-07T12:28:00.003-04:002009-10-07T12:38:00.782-04:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby.Just over a week ago, I was ready to write a column criticizing Chris Daggett for not using the opportunity provided by his presence in the gubernatorial debates to address important issues and shape the tone of the campaign. That's what independent candidates are supposed to do, after all.Then on September 29, Daggett laid down

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-68241797933758712962009-09-29T09:35:00.011-04:002009-09-29T10:02:42.540-04:00

As part of our polling coverage of the New Jersey Governor's race, the Monmouth University Polling Institute is conducting an online panel study with mainly unaffiliated voters. In our first wave of the study, we asked Garden State voters to write down the first word or phrase that each candidate’s name brings to mind. We then created "clouds" using Wordle to show which words pop up most

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-75349547834637099132009-09-24T15:51:00.003-04:002009-09-24T15:56:49.248-04:00

This post originally appeared as a guest column for In The Lobby.Enough already! Admittedly, no one in New Jersey ever suffered from the delusion that Socrates and Rousseau would be running for governor this year. But this year's campaign has gotten worse than many of us could have imagined.It's not the nastiness. That much was expected. It's the utter silliness of the sound bites and

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-24634914082423559322009-09-06T09:59:00.003-04:002009-09-06T10:04:22.019-04:00

The following appeared as an Op-ed in the Sunday, Sept. 6 Courier-Post.Is Chris Christie the next Michael Dukakis? After wrapping up the Democratic nomination for president in July 1988 and enjoying a lead in most polls, Dukakis returned to Massachusetts for the summer to resume his gubernatorial duties. Republican nominee George Bush spent August hammering away at his opponent with negative ads.

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-54329675567164709472009-08-30T10:30:00.002-04:002009-08-30T10:43:02.617-04:00

The following appeared as an Op-Ed in the August 30, 2009 Asbury Park Press.In New Jersey, if you’re going to take taxpayer dollars to fund your campaign, you must be willing to face both the public and your opponents in a mediated debate. In July, it was decided that two gubernatorial candidate debates would be held on October 1 and 16, with the lieutenant governor debate on October 8.If you

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-80131593445708569082009-08-04T14:08:00.011-04:002009-08-07T11:48:03.607-04:00

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll on the New Jersey governor’s race released today showed plainly different results for registered voters (a 4 point lead for Chris Christie over Jon Corzine) versus likely voters (a 14 point advantage for the Republican). The size of this disparity between the two voter groups is definitely unusual, but not unheard of in the annals of polling. Here

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-24166312344859793722009-08-03T12:00:00.021-04:002009-08-03T12:09:17.364-04:00

It’s been more than a week since New Jersey’s political world was once again rocked by a series of high profile corruption busts – differentiated from past arrests only in scope and luridness. Aside from the usual garment-rending observations about how the Garden State can sink so low are questions about how this event will play out in the governor’s race. There are definitely both short-term

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-34471247894872958492009-07-15T12:27:00.001-04:002009-07-15T13:05:13.690-04:00

Governor Corzine has been down in the polls all year, so he’s decided to call in the big gun. President Obama visits the Garden State tomorrow to stump for the country’s one and only Democratic state officeholder up for re-election this year.So what exactly is Obama’s visit supposed to accomplish for our guv?Well, looking beyond the fund-raising event (that’s a private affair), the public rally

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-37794279119150322182009-06-04T13:23:00.008-04:002009-06-04T14:03:08.792-04:00

In no particular order…1. Jon Corzine wasn’t hatched in a lab at Goldman SachsIt seems our governor has a personal story and he finally wants to tell it. He grew up working on a farm and spent time in the Marines. Also, thoughts of his children and grandchildren and the love of a good woman pulled him though a near-fatal car accident. And importantly, he was fired up on Tuesday – like he really

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-58478735848184333042009-06-01T06:21:00.012-04:002009-06-01T07:30:27.989-04:00

There will be little suspense for most of the races in New Jersey’s primary election tomorrow. Of course, the Republican battle to take on Jon Corzine in November is the marquee event. But there are a few other races worth keeping an eye on – too many to mention in this admittedly lengthy post (e.g. some interesting Democratic mayoral primaries that pit “reformers” against the “party

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-40712013805280439782009-05-26T12:13:00.002-04:002009-05-26T12:34:50.644-04:00

Did you ever notice that polls seem to be subject to more journalistic skepticism than other numbers? Perhaps it’s because there are so many polls available, and of such varying quality, that it’s easy to compare and contrast differences.On the other hand, nearly all other statistics – especially those from “official” sources – are accepted prima facie. For example, the media ran

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-9269650802192454752009-05-13T11:08:00.007-04:002009-05-13T11:19:46.131-04:00

That’s a phrase I keep coming back to during this year’s gubernatorial race. And last night’s televised debate between Chris Christie and Steve Lonegan – who are vying for the Republican nomination for New Jersey Governor – only increased my sense that at least one candidate is not giving voters a hook to hang their hats on.It’s clear from every poll in the past year, that most voters in New

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-12945796722399057792009-05-08T16:26:00.009-04:002009-05-08T17:16:52.983-04:00

The internet is burning up today with new numbers out of Washington. No, it's not the the bank stress test results or new stimulus spending. It's the Social Security Administration's annual report of America's most popular baby names.One major highlight of the report (and the item most media outlets jumped on is that: "Barack moved up a record 10,126 places to No. 2,409." Actually, the SSA

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-65782702775515306342009-04-30T09:30:00.016-04:002009-04-30T11:31:52.800-04:00

Two months ago, I attended a conference at Rider University’s Rebovich Institute which featured campaign operatives from last year’s New Jersey District 3 Congressional race. Steve Ayscue, a consultant for the successful John Adler campaign, remarked that candidates don’t get to choose on which issues they get to campaign.Well that’s not entirely true. There are times when no single issue

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-15509648400709049182009-03-09T13:19:00.000-04:002009-03-09T13:19:57.470-04:00

Governor Jon Corzine will unveil the fourth budget of his administration tomorrow. The fiscal reality is that he will have to make serious cuts in the state budget. The political reality is that he will have to do so in such a way that he doesn’t anger core constituencies (such as state workers and teachers unions) and also appears to spread the pain fairly (so he doesn’t tick off independent

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6056742309267331706.post-59235644130767583032009-02-19T13:15:00.003-05:002009-02-19T13:21:16.718-05:00

Today, we released a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll on same-sex marriage. I characterized the poll results – 48% in favor to 43% opposed – as showing a public divided on this issue. I have been asked why I did not frame the results in a more positive light for same-sex marriage, especially since support among registered voters was slightly higher at 50%. The political reality is

Patrick Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17397361447913248630noreply@blogger.com3