By Nicole Sandelier-Monmouth University Polling Institute Graduate Assistant
Last Friday, FBI Director James Comey sent a
letter to congressional leaders stating that the FBI had “learned of the
existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation” of
Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email server. With Election Day right around the corner, how
will the new revelation impact the presidential race?
It is important to note that even before the
recent news regarding Clinton’s emails, national polls were already
tightening. According to the Real Clear Politics 4-way national average, Clintons’ lead had been on a decline. On October 18th, Clinton led Trump
46% to 39%, and on the day that the Comey news broke, Clinton’s lead had fallen
to 45% to 41%. As of today, Clinton is hanging
onto a slim 2-point lead (45% to 43%) nationally.
Although it may still be too early to tell, as
of now there are scare data suggesting the recent news regarding Clinton’s
emails has caused voters to rethink their vote preference. A recent national ABC News/ Washington Post poll found 63% of voters nationally saying
the recent news does not affect how likely they are to support Clinton. Recent Monmouth University polls in Indiana, Missouri, and Pennsylvania
draw an even stronger conclusion. Fewer than 5% of voters in each state say
Comey’s letter actually caused them to change their vote choice. Since this
finding includes supporters of both candidates, the net effect of Comey’s
letter is only a net 1 or 2 point gain for Trump. With all the coverage and
talk focusing on Comey’s decision to re-open the investigation, there is little
evidence it has been overwhelmingly detrimental to the Clinton campaign and her
standing in the polls…yet.
