West Long Branch, NJ – The MonmouthUniversity Poll accurately described the potential outcome in the
Alabama Senate race, both in terms of the margin of victory and in the level of
turnout. Monmouth’s midpoint model showed a razor thin race that Democrat
Doug Jones eventually won by 1.5 percentage points.
This unique special
election involved a high degree of uncertainty and Monmouth used this
opportunity to provide a realistic range of outcomes. Different turnout models
were based both on individual voting history as recorded in the voter rolls and
self-reported interest and enthusiasm in this election. Monmouth’s high turnout
model (about 55-60% of registered voters) with a light screen based on
presidential-electorate demographics showed Jones leading Republican Roy Moore
by 3 points. A lower turnout model (about 30-35%) based on typical midterm
demographics, including only voters who participated in at least two recent
elections or expressed a very high level of interest, had Moore up by 4 points.
Monmouth also
created an adjusted midterm model based on patterns seen in recent special
elections as well as last month’s Virginia gubernatorial contest. This model
projected a slight increase in typical midterm turnout (about 35-40%) driven by
Democratic voters in Democratic areas of the state.
This model assumed
that, regardless of overall turnout, Democratic strongholds would command a
larger than normal share of the electorate. For example, in last month’s
Virginia election, the region Monmouth defined as Northern Virginia accounted
for 31% of the total vote whereas this area would normally contribute about
28-29% of the final tally, with nearly all that increase coming from Democratic
voters. The model based on this turnout pattern produced a tied outcome for the
Alabama race.
In the actual
results, overall turnout came in at about 45% of registered voters, with
relatively higher turnout among Democratic voters in Democratic parts of the
state. For instance, Jefferson County – home to Birmingham, the state’s largest
city – comprised 16% of the final electorate whereas it usually contributes 14%
of the total vote. This result put the actual turnout somewhere between
Monmouth’s adjusted midterm model and high turnout model. The final margin of
victory – Jones by 1.5 points – was also midway between the estimates provided
by these two models.
“The 2016
presidential contest as well as the Virginia gubernatorial race last month
showed that slight deviations from typical turnout can have a huge impact on
election outcomes,” said
Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling
Institute. “I don’t think pollsters should
present every possible model under the sun, but the current era of electoral
instability suggests it may be a good idea to show a realistic range of
outcomes in states where pollsters have little track record or where the nature
of the campaign itself invites uncertainty.”
Monmouth’s only other polls in Alabama were conducted during the 2016
presidential primaries. Monmouth’s Republican poll showed Donald Trump with a
23 point lead over his nearest opponent – a race he won by 22 points. That poll
was within one percentage point of the actual vote share for 4 of the 5
candidates on that ballot, underestimating only Ted Cruz’s total by 5 points.
Monmouth also showed Hillary Clinton ahead by 48 points in a Democratic primary
race that other polls suggested would be much tighter. She won that contest by
59 points.
The Monmouth University Polling
Institute was established in 2005 to be a leading center for the study of public
opinion on critical national and state issues. The Polling Institute's mission
is to foster greater public accountability by ensuring that the public’s voice
is heard in the policy discourse. The Monmouth University Poll,
which is conducted nationally and in 27 states, received an A+ rating from the
polling website FiveThirtyEight.com.
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